Israel v. Iran Way More Important Than Palin/Obama News
But what do you even know about the situation in the Middle East? Here’s a pair of stories that didn’t get much play, although their implications are incredibly severe. First, here’s what started it:
Israel will not allow Iran to attain nuclear capability and if time begins to run out, Jerusalem will not hesitate to take whatever means necessary to prevent Iran from achieving its nuclear goals, the government has recently decided in a special discussion.
According to the Israeli daily Ma’ariv, whether the United States and Western countries succeed in thwarting the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions diplomatically, through sanctions, or whether a US strike on Iran is eventually decided upon, Jerusalem has begun preparing for a separate, independent military strike…
Now the response from Iran:
A senior Iranian military commander has warned that any US or Israeli attack on the Islamic republic would start a new world war, the state news agency IRNA reported on Saturday…
“The unrestrained greed of the US leadership and global Zionism… is gradually leading the world to the edge of a precipice,” Jazayeri said, citing the unrest in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan and Georgia.
“It is evident that if such a challenge occurs, the fake and artificial regimes will be eliminated before anything,” he said, without naming any countries.
Iran does not recognise Israel, which is often described by officials in Tehran as a “fake regime.”…
Iranian officials have repeatedly said they have no intention of freezing enrichment and that the country is currently operating about 4,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges and installing several thousand more.
So Israel basically threatens Iran with war if they don’t back off their centrifuges, and Iran’s response is to not only not back down, but to ramp up the amount of centrifuges. Think gas is expensive now? Wait until the region is sporting some impressive mushroom clouds.
Now for some partisan opinion…
A war between Israel and Iran means a war between the US and Iran. Now remember — Iran is surrounded by Iraq on the west and Afghanistan — or a “hard place” (get it?) — on the east. This gives Iran literally no chance of winning this potential war save threatening a “scorched earth” policy (which only becomes severe if Iran develops nuclear capabilities).
If it’s executed properly with Israeli/US troops attacking the west and US/British troops attacking from the east, Iran will go down in a few days with minimal friendly losses; and from what I hear — which is frequently not the whole story — the people of Iran are good and domestic terrorism in Iran is non-exisistent, so the rebuilding process shouldn’t take too long. (Although that’s what we said about Iraq, too.)
My point is if war breaks out in the Middle East we have the potential to squash it almost immediately if we have proper war funding and authorization. I believe under a President John McCain this would be the case.
But what of a President Barack Obama? Would he make us fight this fight with our hands tied behind our back? Surely he must offer Israel at least some help, being that Israel is (arguably) our top military ally. But would he be willing to offer them our full help, and use both Iraq and Afghanistan as launching pads for strikes?
Either way, I think Israel is going to act whether we want them to or not; so at some point a choice by the US must be made.
Why don’t you tell me what you think?
September 12th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Ethan,
I think you are terribly underestimating the situation and Iran’s capabilities.
Iran has strong ties to Shia groups in Iraq and would likely try to stir up trouble for our troops serving there. They could probably also stir up trouble in Afghanistan, although I do not know to what extent they can do so. I know there is a Shia minority in Afghanistan, so options are likely to exist for Iranian influence.
Domestic terrorism does in fact exist in Iran. Some of it is Kurdish (which the US has been accused of supporting), and some of it is Sunni (with possible A-Q ties). There are also several ethnic groups with grievances who the US has been accused of supporting.
The Iranian Navy and Airforce would do their best to block Ormuz and hit various pipelines to skyrocket the price of oil and make it very costly to the US and global economy.
They have plenty of rockets which they would fire at US targets (but more so at US allies like Israel) to maximize chaos.
Hezbollah, an Iranian puppet in Lebanon/Syria, would immediately attack Israel in a full scale assault of rockets, kidnappings, and probably even with ground forces. Hamas would also be likely to sieze the opportunity to also attack from Gaza and what they can from the West Bank.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is very well spread out across the civilian population, so they would cause a LOT of grief. We would not be able to fix the country quickly. They might even go straight to the tactic of fading away into the population and striking back at us with hit and run tactics. They would certainly target anyone who gave the US any help.
All that being said, the USA has the finest military in the world (God bless). I am certain we would win, but I just want you to be aware that this would not be a walk in the park and there would be heavy casualties. Nuclear war would certainly cause many more casualties, but let us not mistake the gravity of the situation at hand. Iran is a Very large country and would be difficult to maintain peace once we toppled the govt. A diplomatic solution should always be preferred over war with Iran.